Migrant crime in Germany

Posted by Thomas Klikauer

Summary

The text analyzes how German media disproportionately reports on violent crimes committed by foreigners, particularly those from predominantly Muslim countries, compared to actual police statistics, leading to a distorted public perception.

Key Findings:

• Overrepresentation: Foreign suspects are overrepresented in German media reports on violent crime by a factor of roughly three compared to their actual proportion (34.3%) in police crime statistics.
• Focus on Muslim Countries: Suspects from predominantly Muslim countries are four times overrepresented in media reports (TV: 70.3%, Print: 70.1%) compared to police statistics (15.8%).
• Disparity in Coverage: The text contrasts the extensive media coverage, including an ARD “special focal point,” of a 2025 Munich car attack by a suspect of Afghan origin with the significantly reduced coverage of a similar, later incident where the suspect was a German with no migration background.
• Media Patterns: When TV reports on violent crimes mention the suspect’s origin, 94.6% concern non-German suspects. For print media, this figure is 90.8%. This pattern of distortion is statistically significant across both public and private broadcasters and major newspapers, with some progressive and reactionary newspapers even exclusively mentioning non-German suspects when origin is cited.
• Impact: This systematic overrepresentation is argued to fuel xenophobia and racism, create a false perception of migrants as a threat, and benefit far-right political groups like the AfD, which the author states use this fear for political gain despite police statistics not supporting the “foreign crime” narrative.
• Racism: The text concludes by asserting that referring to entire groups (“the Arabs,” “the Turks,” “the Muslims”) rather than individuals when reporting on crime is a form of racism, as ethnic or religious affiliation has never been shown to be a decisive factor in crime rates.

Intro

From what is dished up by the – often corporate – media, it appears as if crime and migration are inextricably linked. But this link might not reflect reality.

A recent study examined exactly this connection and found something rather interesting. It showed that Germany’s leading media do report on violent crimes committed by foreigners – but they do so far more often than the actual share of such crimes in Germany’s police statistics would justify. For example:

• One quarter of TV reports on violent offenders mention the origin of the suspects. Of these reports, 94.6% concern foreign suspects – the highest value measured since the long-term analysis began in 2007.
• One third of print reports on violent crimes mention the origin of the suspects. Of these, 90.8% refer to foreign suspects.

Yet according to Germany’s latest police crime statistics, the proportion of foreign suspects – that is, people merely suspected of committing a crime – amounts to 34.3%. In other words, foreign suspects are overrepresented in Germany’s media by roughly a factor of three.

Almost three quarters of the foreign suspects mentioned in media reports come from predominantly Muslim countries (TV: 70.3%, print: 70.1%). This is significantly more than the police statistics show for these countries (15.8%). Suspects from Muslim countries are thus more than four times overrepresented in Germany’s leading media.

On February 13, 2025, a 24-year-old man drove a car into a demonstration organized by the trade union ver.di at Munich’s Stiglmaierplatz, killing a 37-year-old engineer and her two-year-old daughter. The suspect was of Afghan origin.

Roughly 1,000 reports appeared on this case. Germany’s leading public broadcaster – the ARD – even aired a “special focal point” that evening.

Less than three weeks later, something similar happened again: a man drove into a crowd, killing two people. Soon after, the identity photo of the alleged suspect began circulating on social media – supposedly a migrant. 

It was misinformation, as the police clarified: the arrested suspect was a 40-year-old German with no migration background.

Almost immediately, media interest waned. There were only half as many reports – 50% fewer than in the first case – and no “special focal point” on ARD. Both acts of violence differed in only one notable aspect: 

the nationality of the suspect

This is neither an isolated nor an exceptional case. It is media reality in Germany. In TV coverage of violent crimes, reports almost exclusively focus on foreign suspects.

One in four reports on domestic violent crimes from the evening news and tabloid magazines of Germany’s eight highest-reach national TV broadcasters mention the suspects’ origins (25.4%). When the origin is mentioned, 94.6% of suspects are non-German; only 5.4% are German. Yet, according to police statistics, foreigners make up just a third (34.3%) of violent crime suspects.

This pattern of distortion comes at the expense of non-Germans – and it is statistically significant. Worse still, the proportions hardly differ between public broadcasters (95.7%) and private TV formats (92.9%).

Germany’s “high-reach” national daily newspapers include the right-wing tabloid Bild, the liberal Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), the conservative Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), the reactionary Welt, and the progressive-environmental taz.

When these newspapers report on crimes and mention the suspect’s origin, in an astonishing 90.8% of all such cases the suspects are non-German. The highest proportions are found – surprisingly – in the reactionary Welt and the progressive taz, both of which exclusively mention non-German suspects. The liberal Süddeutsche Zeitung reports the lowest share, at 72.7%.

Meanwhile, a second pattern emerges across both television and print media. Whenever a suspect’s origin is mentioned, 70.3% (TV) and 70.1% (print) of those suspects come from Muslim countries. Yet, according to official police crime statistics, only 15.8% of suspects originate from such countries.

Once again: people from Muslim countries are portrayed as perpetrators about four times more often than the data warrants. In other words, Muslim migrants aren’t more criminal – they’re simply presented as if they were.

The findings are based on “high-reach” nationwide television channels such as the public broadcasters ARD and ZDF, as well as commercial stations RTL, Sat.1, ProSieben, Kabel Eins, Vox, and RTL Zwei. Together, these account for a combined market share of 55% among 14- to 49-year-olds.

At the same time, Germany’s main newspapers – Bild (620,000 copies), SZ (200,000), FAZ (144,000), Welt (45,000), taz (36,000) – still reach a considerable audience.

Overall, foreign suspects are overrepresented by a factor of three in German media, and suspects from Muslim countries by a factor of four.

In other words, Germans hear or see four times more about suspects – not even convicts – when these suspects are non-German. And yet, perceptions shape reality.

If Germans feel that foreigners are somehow dangerous, that fear itself becomes real. This plays into what is known as the “politics of fear.”

The interest symbiosis between Germany’s media and the far-right is creating a perception that Germans might only feel safe again when they see fewer foreigners – whether those foreigners are dangerous criminals (rare) or simply fathers returning home from work (common).

Stoking xenophobia and racism are statements like the infamous and widely condemned Stadtbild remark by Germany’s chancellor, Friedrich Merz (CDU), implying that deporting people would somehow “improve the cityscape” (das Stadtbild).

Echoing the racist ideology of the neo-fascist AfD, Merz also claimed that “his daughters can finally go to the disco in the evening without a daddy taxi!” Yet neither Merz’s insinuations nor the alarmist tone of much German media are based on facts.

The facts are these: leading German media report on violent crimes committed by foreigners far more often than their actual share in police statistics would justify.

Worse still, mere suspects – not convicted criminals – from Muslim countries are portrayed particularly unfairly, overrepresented by a factor of four.

In Germany’s police statistics, only about a quarter of all alleged crimes are attributed to “criminal Arabs.” Yet Germans are bombarded with headlines about foreign crime. In one notorious example, Bild blared: 

“Shock figures: 100,000 crimes committed by Afghans!”

Such headlines – and countless others like them – are broadcast to Germans – almost daily. This happens not out of ignorance, but in defiance of what is known. Even Germany’s so-called “quality media” participate. They too, it seems, have been influenced by the AfD’s right-wing framing of “foreign crime.”

Online, the problem is amplified: clickbait thrives at the expense of migrants. Yet racism in German media does not stop there.

To refer to entire groups [Germans call this” Gruppenbezogene Menschenfeindlichkeit] – “the Arabs,” “the Turks,” “the Muslims” – rather than individuals when reporting on crime is nothing short of racism.

While there are explanations for why certain social strata, age groups, or genders – mostly men – may exhibit higher crime rates, ethnic or religious affiliation has never been shown to be a decisive factor.

But for much of Germany’s media, it seems to be. The usual suspects are always the same. Playing one group off against another may serve right-wing populists – but it poisons Germany’s social cohesion.

After years of systematic overrepresentation of non-Germans in crime reporting, parts of the German public have been led – mistakenly – to believe that migrants pose a threat.

At the same time, Germans from migrant families feel – rightly – unfairly treated and criminalized. The winner is not German society, not truth, not fact – but the ultra-right, neo-Nazis, and the AfD.

These groups pose as protectors of the German people against “dangerous foreigners” – a threat that, according to police statistics, simply does not exist. Germany is not threatened by “foreign crime,” just as it was never threatened by the “Jewish world conspiracy” that Hitler claimed. Neither one was – or is – real.

It is therefore essential that Germany’s quality media take the findings of the current study on “media and crime” seriously and correct their course. That would serve both the truth and German society.

Photo: (source: https://deepai.org/machine-learning-model/text2img)

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