Presidential elections in Poland: the extreme positions of the third candidate, Sławomir Menzen, radicalize the two leading candidates in the race
Interview with Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat, co-founder of Cross-border Talks, on the Polish presidential elections and the intrigue surrounding them, related to the votes for Sławomir Mentzen and other smaller candidates, the mistakes of the two leading contenders, and political propaganda
The interview was recorded before the vote and broadcasted by the Bulgarian National Radio in the Saturday 150 program on May 17, 2025
Deyan Yotov: Tomorrow, Poland will hold presidential elections in which the stakes are high for Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s ruling coalition. For more than a year, key reforms have been held hostage by the veto power of Andrzej Duda, who served two presidential terms backed by the previous Law and Justice government. Tusk’s Civic Platform candidate is the popular mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, who failed to defeat Duda in 2020 but now appears to be the favorite with over 30% support against Jarosław Kaczyński’s new choice.
The previously unknown historian Karol Nawrocki is expected to receive 26% of the vote. Once again, Poland’s choice is between the pro-European path embodied by Tusk and the conservative populism of Kaczynski. However, in the looming runoff, votes outside their camps will be important, especially the 12% for the third most popular candidate, millionaire Sławomir Mentzen, from the far-right Confederation party.
Konstantin Mravov’s conversation with Katowice-based journalist Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat begins precisely with Mentzen’s positions, which may prove decisive for Poland’s future political path.
Sławomir Menzen is both a supporter of the free market and has extremely conservative views on the world. In his opinion, the state should not demand anything from its citizens. He calls himself a “libertarian candidate,” insisting on absolutely minimal taxes, zero state intervention in any economic activity, and complete personal freedom. But not freedom of abortion, as he wants a total ban on that. He has also proclaimed a greater role for the Catholic Church in public life, in line with conservative Polish tradition. In recent weeks, his most talked-about proposal came from an appearance on the popular YouTube show hosted by Krzysztof Stanowski. He asked Mentzen whether higher education should be free. Mentzen replied that there should be fees for every university degree. When asked whether this would deprive many young Poles of the opportunity to develop, he replied that the most talented among them could be sponsored by private patrons if necessary, while the rest would have to pay for themselves.
In other words – he is one of the most popular candidates among young voters and at the same time he wants to abolish one of the greatest achievements of the Polish state, where education is extremely accessible.
Mentzen is, of course, also a staunch opponent of immigration. This is an important issue in this campaign, and among the main candidates, he has the strongest position that Poland should completely close its borders and not accept anyone.
We started with the positions of Sławomir Mentzen because even if he does not achieve the success of other far-right TikTok politicians on the continent and around the world, his voters will be key in the runoff. It looks like the liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski, backed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform, will face off against Karol Nawrocki, who’s supported by former rulers and right-wing populists from Law and Justice. Is this configuration of the runoff absolutely certain?
I am among those who are confident that the runoff will be between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki, but more importantly, Mentzen’s positions have already influenced their campaigns, as his electorate is still key to the second round. In recent weeks, Tshaskowski has made many anti-immigrant speeches. He even boasted that since he has been governing Warsaw, a record number of foreigners have been deported from the capital. This is nonsense, as this process does not depend on him as mayor, but on the border guards.
For his part, Karol Nawrocki seems to be abandoning the social-patriotic rhetoric of Law and Justice. He is also talking about tax cuts, which would make the social programs that have won the party huge popularity impossible. Nawrocki has gone so far as to propose that a lower level of taxation be enshrined in the Constitution.
All this is due to the influence of Menzen’s ideas on the two main candidates, which is transforming their political environment.
There were also scandals surrounding both of them. Trzaskowski missed some debates with no clear explanation. Nawrocki bought an apartment in Gdansk at a very low price on the condition that he would take care of an elderly and sick person, whom he later abandoned. Are both candidates weak?
There was much speculation that Jarosław Kaczyński had chosen this unknown figure, Nawrocki, rather than someone more experienced within the party, so as not to boost the popularity of his rivals for the leadership of Law and Justice. Speaking of the mistakes of the two candidates, you mentioned only the most discussed ones. Indeed, it was a weak campaign with unconvincing candidates, and the two major parties seem confident that whoever they nominate, their core voters will support them just to oppose the other side.
At least for now, Trzaskowski seems like the more obvious choice for the Civic Platform. He’s popular in Warsaw and other big cities, including among the more progressive Civic Platform supporters. He is a successful and educated, good-looking man, the perfect candidate for the pro-European urban electorate.
On the other hand, Nawrocki was a surprise and, at least in my opinion, Law and Justice could have had a better candidate.
This week, the Polish election campaign was not spared a scandal involving foreign influence. Due to an ongoing investigation, Facebook suspended certain sponsored posts. Unlike elsewhere, these were not in support of a pro-Russian candidate, perhaps because there is not a single one in Poland…
The posts, funded by an Austrian-registered organization, were in favor of Rafal Trzaskowski and against Nawrocki and Mentzen. Will this case have any impact on the vote and Trzaskowski’s status as the poll favorite for the next Polish president?
In fact, in Poland, anonymous online campaigns against or in favor of a candidate were happening in the shadows long before we started talking about Russian influence.The internet has been used for shady campaigns in Poland for years, but it cannot be said that anyone has won an election this way.
According to current investigations, candidates from Confederation and Law and Justice have been attacked by anonymous Facebook profiles, which most likely provided false information when registering. If I had to guess who is behind the campaign, I would point to the wider circle of people and organizations around the Civic Platform. Its supporters are extremely active on Twitter and Facebook, and there have been cases of organized attacks on political opponents with rude comments. But all this is a predictable element of campaigns here.
The presidential election is perceived as a referendum on Donald Tusk’s governance. Last week on “Saturday 150,” a sociologist from your country pointed out that if parliamentary elections were held now, the new majority would be between Law and Justice and the Confederation. We began our conversation with the second right-wing libertarian candidate, Sławomir Mentzen, and how his messages are perceived by the main camps.
In the runoff, the votes for even smaller candidates will also be important. Fourth in the polls is Sejm Marshal Szymon Holownia, whose party is among those in power and whose votes are likely to go to Trzaskowski. Even further to the right than Mentzen is the devout Catholic and proud anti-Semite Grzegorz Braun, with between 3% and 5% support.
There are two left-wing candidates with a combined support of around 10%. How will this spectrum translate into the runoff between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki?
Grzegorz Braun is so right-wing that it is impossible for his supporters not to vote for Nawrocki. The question is whether they will vote in the runoff at all, and this also applies to left-wing voters. They will probably vote for Trzaskowski, even if they are dissatisfied with Tusk’s government, because they feel they have a duty to stop the nationalists, thereby nipping in the bud the formation of the aforementioned alliance between Law and Justice and the Confederation.
As a result, Trzaskowski remains the favorite, but at the same time, polls show growing dissatisfaction with Tusk’s administration.
The difference between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki in a possible runoff does not seem so great that the victory of the current mayor of Warsaw is entirely certain. What will be the consequences of a fiasco for his candidacy?
It would be a major blow to the ruling party, which constantly emphasizes that the reforms it has promised can only be implemented after winning the presidency. Interestingly, there is another scenario. At some point, the Confederation may turn out to be Tusk’s ally.
Their economic programs are not so different, and the time when the prime minister presented himself as a defender of women’s rights and human rights in general is over. Now he talks mainly about security, defense, and strong governance, and these are issues on which he can find common ground with the Confederation.
Cover photo: Sławomir Mentzen during the presidential campaign. Photo by Radek Czarnecki
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