Concerns for Romania’s future after the presidential elections: financial uncertainty and political instability

Vladimir Mitev, Mediapool, 11 May 2025

At the end of the week following the first round of the presidential elections, signs began to emerge from the camp of Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan, supported by the NGO sector and representatives of the IT sector, that the situation was desperate. Nicușor Dan himself published an opinion poll he had commissioned, which showed a result in the second round of 54.8% to 45.2% in favour of George Simion.

In the first round, Dan won only Bucharest and Cluj at county level – whose centres are the two cities with the most developed urban culture in Romania. The third-placed candidate, Crin Antonescu, representative of the governing coalition formed by the Social Democratic Party, the National Liberal Party and the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania, won only a few counties with a large Hungarian population. The rest of the counties – over 30 – were led in the first round by the candidate of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), George Simion.

Now, Nicușor Dan, an independent candidate, with the support of extra-parliamentary parties in the first round and that of the Save Romania Union, the National Liberal Party and Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania in the second round of the presidential elections, is not touring the country or abroad, nor is he coming up with specific messages to attract the inhabitants of the regions or the diaspora to his side. At the same time, George Simion can boast of numerous meetings on the ground in Romania and with Romanians abroad in recent months. He is the clear winner among Romanians in the diaspora, especially in Western Europe, but also in general, with the diaspora becoming an increasingly important factor in Romanian elections.

Thus, in the run-up to the second round on 18 May, the tense anticipation of Nicușor Dan’s supporters is turning either into a mobilisation to talk to and convince people around them that Dan is the right solution for Romania, or into apocalyptic scenarios for the future, or into verbal aggression towards George Simion’s voters, who are insulted online for being ‘stupid’ or ‘trash.’ George Simion himself was verbally violent, even towards representatives of the institutions managing the electoral process, in the run-up to the first round of the presidential elections, for example when Călin Georgescu was disqualified. But now, leading in all the polls, he no longer feels the power deficit he demonstrated in his previous moments of aggression.

Nicușor Dan’s camp hopes that he can mobilise people who did not vote in the first round and that George Simion’s voters will lose their motivation, for one reason or another, to vote for him in the second round. But Simion’s supporters seem to be rallying behind their candidate, who has regularly signalled that he enjoys the support of the disqualified candidate, Călin Georgescu.

The position of the Social Democratic Party appears to be crucial to the outcome of the presidential election. It has traditionally been a complex political entity, with pro-European politicians and voters as well as sovereignists. Victor Negrescu, Vice-President of the European Parliament and MEP for the Romanian Social Democrats, and Victoria Stoicu, outgoing Vice-President for Relations with Civil Society, have already called on the party to support Nicușor Dan. Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Victor Ponta – currently expelled from the party – won 13.04% in the first round and positioned himself as the sovereignist candidate among social democrat voters.

However, the Social Democratic Party itself refuses to take sides. In an interview with the Bulgarian-Romanian blog The Bridge of Friendship, Eugen Teodorovici, former finance minister of the Social Democratic Party during the governments of Victor Ponta and Liviu Dragnea, stated bluntly that Romania’s serious macroeconomic problems, related to the growing budget deficit and the difficulty of refinancing public debt, must be solved by politicians with experience and expertise. Therefore, according to Teodorovici, it does not matter who becomes president. What matters is who will form the government, because it will implement the necessary policies.

Teodorovici gives the impression that the Social Democratic Party will support a presidential candidate who realises that he must not create problems for the political elites with experience and expertise, will not interfere with them and will sit quietly and peacefully in the Cotroceni Palace while the old wolves do their job. He also mentions Victor Ponta as a suitable candidate for the position of prime minister. However, for many Romanians, Ponta is the embodiment of everything they hate about their politicians: corruption, clientelism and arrogance. Moreover, neither Simion nor Nicușor Dan have any intention of nominating Victor Ponta as the next prime minister.

The results of the first round show that it is the old faces that are being rejected by voters, who are either backing Nicușor Dan’s techno-populism or George Simion’s conservative populism. There is visible dissatisfaction with the two major parties of the transition – the PSD and the PNL – with their stabilocracy, their corruption, their lack of reforms and their lack of interest in people outside their networks. By voting for Nicușor Dan or George Simion, Romanian voters are punishing ‘the system’, despite the fact that all candidates have ties to it.

About the candidates in brief

Nicușor Dan has received the support of the Save Romania Union, the National Liberal Party and the Union of Hungarians in Romania, which brings him closer to the position of a mainstream politician, after entering politics as a civic activist with his candidacy for mayor of Bucharest in 2012.

Some of the Romanians we spoke to explain that some of Romania’s most reputable companies – in the IT sector, for example – support him. The NGO sector, which is quite strong in Romania, also supports him as a candidate. The support of the National Liberal Party could also mean that Western investors in the country, including their employees – for example in the automotive industry – could vote for Nicușor Dan.

He is positioning himself for continued support for Ukraine and closer ties with the Weimar Triangle (Poland, Germany, France), a group of countries currently at the centre of EU decision-making. Dan is also in favour of a renewed and more active fight against corruption, for example in areas where he says mafias are emerging – such as, in his view, the construction sector.

George Simion is banking on Romanians’ resentment towards the old parties, which indirectly targets the two countries at the heart of the EU – France and Germany – and directly targets Romanian politicians seen as their representatives. At the same time, Simion’s party is a member of the political family of European conservatives and reformists, in which Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (a warm link between the leading forces in the European Parliament and the European Commission on the one hand, and Donald Trump on the other) and Polish sovereignists (who describe Simion in their media as ‘one of the most pro-Polish politicians in Europe’) are strong. A victory for George Simion in the presidential elections could transform him into a politician with visibility as a sovereignist at European level, as it would make him head of state.

The economic basis of Romanian sovereignty

Simion is currently riding a wave of discontent. But it is unclear to what extent his political trend has an economic basis in Romania. If there is a lack of economic dynamism and material interest in voters permanently siding with Simion, their enthusiasm may wane or be directed elsewhere. And the support of several Protestant churches (but not all of them – the bishop of the Evangelical Church has called for support for Nicușor Dan) or parts of the Orthodox Church may not be enough if people feel that their incomes and economic interests are threatened by the difficult decisions they expect the future government to take (more on Romania’s macroeconomic problems below).

According to the National Bank of Romania, as of 31 December 2023, Germany is the largest foreign investor in the Romanian economy, maintaining its position from the previous period. The ranking of final investor countries is continued by Austria (11.7% of total foreign investment), France (11.0%), the United States (7.0%), the Netherlands (5.8%) and Italy (5.4%), each of these countries reporting a balance of foreign direct investment of over €5 billion. Romania has seen a recent increase in American investment, but unlike Poland and Hungary, where American investment is much more numerous, the Romanian economy does not have such a large source of economic dynamism outside Western Europe.

There is a view that the only American sovereign investments that Romania can attract are in extractive businesses, such as natural resource extraction. Sovereignists resent the fact that OMV Petrom extracts natural resources in Romania, but its oil is processed in a refinery in Ploiești, whereas if an American company were to start extracting oil in Romania instead of OMV Petrom, it would most likely be transported to refineries in other parts of the world.

Georgescu – whom Simion now claims he will try to rehabilitate in Romanian politics – had declared that he would open all the mines in Romania if he came to power. Georgescu’s promise is probably unrealistic, not only because of the regulations and documents adopted for a just transition to a green economy, but also because it would require significant investment in technology. But Georgescu and his political leanings are close to the type of national and international interests that exploit natural resources and are not so concerned with developing a green or IT economy (in a previous role, ten years ago and more, Giurgescu was a ‘globalist’ and a supporter of sustainable development, but now he is positioned close to the far right in Romania, which supports gold mining projects such as Roșia Montană, which provoked the discontent of environmentalists and then nationalists 12 years ago).

Simion himself promises reindustrialisation, so that development takes place not only in large cities, but also in smaller and more rural areas. According to one of the key statements by former foreign minister, ambassador to the United States and deputy secretary general of NATO, Mircea Geoană, 10-12 urban agglomerations generate 80% of Romania’s GDP. Beyond them lies something close to an economic desert.

However, George Simion did not clearly explain where the funds and investments for reindustrialisation will come from, who will do it and how. Even during Liviu Dragnea’s time, when Eugen Teodorovici was finance minister, the then sovereignist government pursued a policy of promoting pro-industry incentives and removing obstacles to non-industrial investments considered speculative. But even then, and even now, Romania’s reindustrialisation has been achieved primarily through foreign investment in areas where resources – labour, universities, markets/consumers and motorways – already exist. As a result, the problem of underdevelopment in large parts of Romania persists.

The inhabitants of rural areas and small towns in Romania are by far Simion’s largest electorate. This population represents over 50% of the country’s total population. It is also the source of a large number of Romanian workers abroad who detest the party system because of the privileges it offers to their networks, while these foreign workers were forced to leave their homes and work in precarious conditions and as second-class Europeans in Western Europe.

George Simion is mindful of the attitude of his voters, who are mostly workers, and also has some socially-sounding messages and promises (the Polish Law and Justice party had a similar social orientation when it was in power). However, his party also has libertarian rhetoric in its programme, which probably brings it closer to the line taken by Trump, Musk and Milei. Simion is also friendly with employers…

Fears – financial collapse and political instability

Above all the pros and cons of one candidate or another, Romanians’ fears of economic collapse and austerity weigh heavily. Romania’s budget deficit last year was 9.3% of GDP. Romania’s national external debt has increased significantly under the old parties, which were loyal to President Klaus Iohannis. At the same time, after the first round, the Romanian leu depreciated from 4.98 lei to 5.12 lei against the euro in just a few days.

The pro-European parties that have governed until now are to blame for this collapse and for the country’s macroeconomic problems, having made populist gestures towards various categories of citizens in the super-electoral year of 2024 (when Romania had all possible elections). But the political price for their indifference, which also led to the highest inflation in the EU in 2024, will be paid by the politicians whom Romanians now trust and who will have to introduce austerity measures and hit voters’ welfare, generating discontent in turn.

It is probably significant that there is talk in Romania that their politics are becoming Bulgarianised – in the sense that they are entering a period of instability. In Bulgaria, we had Borisov’s stabilocracy until 2020-2021, followed by years of mutual disputes and changes of government, now interim, now political, but with the support of parties and tendencies that are generally in conflict.

There is not only the hypothesis of continued confrontation and polarisation between the camps in Romania, but also the opinion that in the immediate future ‘everyone will be in power and everyone will be in opposition’ – something familiar in contemporary Bulgarian politics, as the situation is extraordinary and requires the coordination of different types of elites. For example, if Simion wins the presidential election, the pro-European parties could form a government to counterbalance him. And if the PSD withdraws from government, it will have to give its parliamentary vote to a government without being part of it, remaining in opposition but voting for the government, because that is the only way a government can be formed. A coalition between the right-wing parties and the AUR seems impossible.

But unlike Bulgaria, whose finances, as seen from Bucharest, are doing well and which is trying to join the eurozone, in Romania there are serious fears that the country may not be able to pay its foreign debt. The ROBOR index, which Romanian banks use to lend to each other for interbank loans, rose after the first round from 5.9% to 7.31%. People with incomes in lei and loans in euros will pay a higher proportion of their income to pay their debts because of the depreciation of the leu. And so Romania is gradually entering a storm.

Some of those we spoke to in Bucharest in recent days still hope that, somehow, a black swan event will swing people’s preferences back in favour of Nicușor Dan. Others believe that George Simion’s victory is certain.

A week before the second round, protests by young people carrying European flags began in Romania’s major cities. These protests do not yet have the same mass appeal as those against Victor Ponta and the Social Democratic Party in November 2014, when, following an unprecedented mobilisation in the country and among the diaspora, Klaus Iohannis emerged victorious after initially losing to Ponta in the first round. The diaspora now seems clearly positioned in support of Simion, although Nicușor Dan also has influence among Romanians abroad. The scale of the mobilisation behind Nicușor Dan and Europe within Romania in the coming days will show whether or not he will succeed in bringing about a historic upset.

Bulgarians and the Romanian contradiction

Whoever becomes the next president of Romania, we in Bulgaria must think carefully about Romanian politics because the country itself is complex. It brings together three large regions that have historically been under the cultural influence of three different empires. It has attracted significant foreign investment from Western Europe, but still values its relations with Israel from the socialist era. It has an influential Hungarian minority. There is a strong Orthodox Church, but also many different denominations typical of Central Europe, as well as strong neo-Protestants. 

As Romania’s neighbours, we are interested in Romania’s economic, social and political success, because this is normal and human, and because the success of one is the success of the other.

Romania is Bulgaria’s second largest trading partner after Germany. In 2023, trade between Bulgaria and Romania reached a record level of almost €8 billion, an increase of 23.7% over the previous year.

When, under Liviu Dragnea, there was polarisation in Romania for and against the suspension of the fight against corruption and the taming of Laura Kövesi, the Romanian contradictions spilled over into our country and we also had these two camps in our media, society and politics – suggesting the unofficial links between the elites of the two countries. It can be assumed that the increasingly visible division between the NGO sector and the sovereignists in Romania will draw allies in one direction or the other in our society.

Whatever position we take on the Romanian contradiction, I hope it will be determined by genuine interest and goodwill towards Romanians, and not just because we consider them or ourselves to be representatives and proxies of the ‘right’ interests. There is a danger that too much hatred towards one current or another will blind us to the fact that both have real support in Romanian society, i.e. Romanians see in them the embodiment of their idea of justice and their hope for something better. We need to understand the arguments, motivations, emotions and sensitivities of the different sides in this controversy in order to have a fair assessment of what is happening and to be a constructive neighbour in the near future.

Photo: Oradea is one of the best developing Romanian cities (source: Pixabay, CC0)

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