Vladimir Mitev: By voting sovereignists, the Romanians have shown how disappointed they are
– Nicușor Dan will find himself in a difficult situation in the second round of the presidential elections due to strong sovereignist sentiment in Romania – Cross-Border Talks’ co-founder comments on the results of the first round of the presidential elections on 4 May and what lies ahead for Romanian politics.
Interview by Diana Doncheva, first published in Bulgarian by BNR.
Romanians voted on 4 May for their country’s president. We recall that Romania held presidential elections on November 24, 2024, which were surprisingly won by far-right candidate Călin Georgescu, who had previously had very modest poll ratings during the campaign. The result was annulled by the Constitutional Court.
The Central Electoral Commission of Romania banned him from running again and a criminal investigation was launched against him. What happened in the second attempt to elect a president? The winner, with 40% of the vote, was the leader of the nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians party, George Simion, who will go to the second round on May 18, 2025, against the mayor of Bucharest and independent candidate Nicușor Dan, who has so far obtained 20% of the Romanian vote and is ahead of the ruling coalition candidate, Crin Antonescu.
What does the future hold for Romania? Was it a surprise that the independent candidate and mayor of Bucharest, Nicușor Dan, defeated the candidate of the united governing coalition? After the parliamentary elections on December 1, 2024, pro-European parties in Romania united to form a majority and a government and to exclude the far right. However, this did not happen. Why? And what does this mean for Romania’s pro-European future?
Vladimir Mitev: We can see that the result is quite reminiscent of the result we had on November 24, 2024, in the first round of the cancelled elections. And this, I believe, points to a purely Romanian dynamic and explanation for what is happening.
During the reign of Klaus Iohannis, who recently stepped down as president, a kind of stabilocracy was created—a specific regime, familiar in our region, in which one or two parties are equivalent to the state and everything happens through them. European funds are used, but there is also a lot of corruption.
In fact, we see that Romanians are showing in two ways that they are disappointed with what they have had in recent years in terms of governance. One way is by supporting the sovereignists. The other way is by supporting the mayor of Bucharest, who has a clear reformist line and is close to the NGO sector.
So you’re saying that Romanians are somehow voting against stopping the fight against high-level corruption. Is that how they’re going to vote in these elections? What will happen at the polls if we look ahead to May 18, 2025?
Independent candidate Nicusor Dan, the current mayor of Bucharest, is known for his consistent fight against corruption. He has been identified by analysts as the only one who can stop the rising tide of far-right sentiment and is appreciated and strongly supported by the people of Bucharest, but is he well known in the country and will he eventually be able to defeat George Simion with the votes of the ruling coalition candidate? Or will Romania move in a far-right direction?
The mayor of the capital does indeed have a lot of support in Bucharest and Cluj-Napoca, and has received some support abroad, from the diaspora. He has the aura of a successful Romanian in the new conditions of the last 35 years, because he is also a winner of international maths competitions, he has businesses that he has developed, and ultimately he is supported by the younger educated elites and people more connected to the civil sector, as well as some in the IT sector. But it is unlikely that Bucharest and Cluj-Napoca alone will be enough. We see that these provide him with 20-21%.
That is how much he has now in the first round…
George Simion has 40-41% of the vote, and if Victor Ponta’s vote is added, the sovereignist vote becomes approximately 55%. In addition, some of Antonescu’s voters may support Simion. In other words, Nicușor Dan has a rather difficult task ahead of him. However, there are perhaps a few things working in his favor.
First of all, he has international contacts. Of course, George Simion has them too, but Nicușor Dan is much more internationalized in his early years, in my opinion.
He is pro-European, isn’t he?
Yes, exactly. He supports continued support for Ukraine and, in addition, closer ties with the so-called Weimar Triangle, i.e., Poland, Germany, and France. This is the core of the EU at the moment. He is the only candidate who has clearly stated such a line.
But it must be said here that the 55% of Romanians or even more who voted for the sovereignists are not all far-right, fascists, etc., or legionaries. That is, apart from the fact that there is an ideological element, that some people profess such an ideology and for this reason supported Simion, there are, I believe, other reasons, which are perhaps socio-economic. The fact is that there are people who do not live in large cities and perhaps Romania’s economic success does not reach them. They are looking for justice and, as a result, they find it in candidates who present themselves as an alternative, as different from the status quo that has ruled until now. Some of these dissatisfied people go to Nicușor Dan, of course, but others go to the sovereignists.
George Simion is an interesting personality. He has led the Alliance for the Union of Romanians since 2019. At that time, he ran for the European Parliament as an independent but failed to win the necessary votes. In fact, as Euronews Romania points out, his political career took shape with the creation of the Action 2012 platform, a coalition of NGOs fighting for the reunification of Romania with the Republic of Moldova. He organized a series of civic actions, marches, and demonstrations in support of the idea of unification. He was subsequently declared persona non grata in Moldova and Ukraine for actions against the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the two neighbouring countries.
Furthermore, George Simion has been described and compared to a Romanian Donald Trump. He seems like a very interesting person. What direction will the country take if he wins the second round? Will Romania’s pro-European accession and future under his rule be threatened? Many of the Romanians who voted yesterday said that he is too young and will not be able to cope.
I understand from the Romanians I speak to that there is concern that Simion could somehow reinstall Georgescu in politics. We will have to see if this is really possible, as there is a criminal investigation against Georgescu and, at least in my view, it is unlikely that a man with such problems with the law could become prime minister. However, again in my opinion, at least for the moment, George Simion is trying to maximize the benefits of appearing close to Georgesu in order to maximize the votes that were given to Georgescu.
Then we have to see if he will actually take such actions to somehow restore Georgescu’s role in politics. There is, I believe, some hope that Simion could actually be a man of the system, since his party is part of the European political family of Georgia Meloni and the Polish sovereignists, who are anti-Russian. Simion himself has taken some important steps. For example, he expelled Claudiu Târziu, the second most powerful figure in his party who had territorial claims against Ukraine, from the party. That is, there are some signs that Simeon may follow a more moderate and less anti-European line. But again, we have to see if this move by Georgescu is purely tactical (they appeared together with Georgescu at the actual vote) or if there will actually be actions to rehabilitate Georgescu, which I believe will also meet with a lot of resistance.
Georgescu’s previous victory, which was annulled, came after a massive pro-Georgescu campaign on TikTok and social media. Is it the same now for George Simion? And is it young people he is relying on most? Is he succeeding in his goal of attracting young people?
Yesterday, on election day, there were reports that young people would vote relatively less, to a certain extent. On the other hand, Simion’s campaign tried to send a million letters to adult voters in rural areas. I had the opportunity to speak earlier, on May 2, 2025, on another program of Bulgarian National Radio’s Orizont, about the fact that the Central Election Commission was a very active regulatory authority during the campaign and decreed that those millions of letters should be withdrawn and not delivered. The reason for this, as I understand it, is that the so-called GDPR standards were violated, meaning that Simion used databases containing personal information without the consent of the individuals concerned. But we can see that Simion’s result is better than we expected.
Is there a danger of a similar scenario to Georgescu if George Simion wins in the second round?
Let’s see what happens. There was an investigation by the website Context.ro which shows that, like Georgescu, Simion declared 0 lei for his online campaign. But, in fact, such a campaign was carried out and there were contracts with the media for political advertising for his candidacy. For this, we will see two more dramatic weeks.
Let’s see how all these allegations of violations will affect the campaign. We see that some violations against Georgescu were taken very seriously and, as a result, he was excluded.
Let’s see what happens, it will indeed be an interesting result. Thank you for your comment. I heard a discussion with Vladimir Mitev, a colleague from the Romanian section of Bulgarian National Radio, about the result of yesterday’s presidential runoff in Romania. Basically, things will be decided on May 18, 2025, in the second round, between the candidate of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians, George Simion, who won 40% of the votes in the first round, and the mayor of Bucharest, the independent candidate, Nicușor Dan, who currently has over 20% of the Romanian vote.
Photo: George Simion voting, accompanied by Calin Georgescu.
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