The Polish presidential elections in context

Vladimir Mitev, Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat

On the night of 1–2 June 2025, the Cross-border Talks team — Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat and Vladimir Mitev — conducted a live stream on the media’s social media channels, offering analysis and reflection on the Polish presidential elections. During the broadcast, TVP’s live stream was shown, allowing viewers to see electoral maps, statistics, opinion polls and other materials while Malgorzata and Vlad reflected on the socio-political situation in Poland. The live stream also featured an intervention by Romanian foreign policy expert Gabriel Done, who offered insights into the Polish and recent Romanian elections, as well as Polish-Romanian and regional relations from a Romanian perspective. Afterwards, Malgorzata and Vladimir discussed several important issues facing Polish society, including women’s rights, the role of the Catholic Church, and the activities of left-wing and far-right political groups. They also explored the potential differences between a Trzaskowski and a Nawrocki presidency on various key issues. They also discussed the Polish presidency of the Council of the EU and how the country’s alignment with Germany and France in the Weimar Triangle has changed, as well as the perspectives before the Three Seas Initiative under either president. The live stream ended with both commenting that polarisation remains an important issue plaguing Central and Southeastern Europe.

You can read the transcript of the livestream below.

Vladimir Mitev: Welcome to Cross-Border Talks. With me is Malgorzata Kulbachevska in Katowice, Poland, and I am Vladimir Mitev in Ruse, Bulgaria. We are about to begin our coverage of the presidential elections. Over the next few minutes, and possibly hours, we will be reflecting on the ongoing Polish presidential elections.

We are just a few minutes away from the exit poll announcements, and hopefully we will also have some guests to discuss and reflect on a number of issues related to Poland, including its connections to Southeastern Europe. Malgorzata, how do you feel at this moment in your country, and what are your thoughts on this live stream?

Malgorzata Kulbachevska-Figat: Yes, hello everyone, and welcome to this truly cross-border electoral evening. When I went to vote today, it looked almost like a normal summer’s day.

It was very hot today, and people seemed to be enjoying their free time. However, if you went online today in the Polish-speaking segment of the internet, you could sense the tension and anticipation that this is a historic moment, and that Poland will be different tomorrow than it was yesterday. I don’t want to use such big words, but it is in fact a civilisational choice, which may determine the trajectory of our country for the next few years, as well as our position in Europe and the number of internal policy questions. I am excited and nervous because this is the first time a cross-border talk has gone live, and there are only seven minutes left to vote in Poland.

The polling stations have already closed in a number of countries where there is a visible Polish diaspora. One important thing to note is that we had a record turnout, and we will most probably have a record turnout in these elections. Three hours ago, the National Electoral Commission announced that 54% of people had voted, which is an impressive result. We can also expect more people to vote at the last minute, so I think that not only am I excited this evening, but many people in Poland are also expecting something important to happen. In fact, I would say not only in Poland, but throughout the region.

I should remind our viewers that the Polish elections are intertwined with the Romanian presidential elections, with many similarities between the two, such as support from the liberal sector in one country for the other, or the sovereignty sector in one country for the other. Hopefully, we’ll be joined a little later by Gabriel Done, a Romanian foreign policy expert, who will help us understand how the outcome of the Polish elections influences Romanian policy and even regional politics in Southeastern Europe. With the announcement of the first exit polls just a few minutes away, I think it would be a good idea to tune in to the English-language Polish channel TVP for a few minutes. As far as I know, it’s very popular in Poland, and it will give us the opportunity to follow and comment on what’s going on while it’s happening. Just a moment to set up the right window, and then we’ll continue.

Okay, so we are now connected to the live TVP stream. It will take me a moment to activate the sound.

For now, we can see all the previous presidents of Poland since the fall of the socialist system, including Lech Wałęsa. Aleksander Kwaśniewski of the post-communist Democratic Left Alliance, then Lech Kaczyński, one of the founders of the Law and Justice Party. The next president was Bronisław Komorowski, representing the Civic Platform and the Tusk party. The current president, Andrzej Duda, was in the last photo; he is leaving office now, as he could not stand for another term. What he will do now is still uncertain, but the big question is whether the next president will continue Duda’s policies and represent the sovereignists in the presidential palace, while the pro-European option in power, forming the government, or will the pro-European and liberal option gain full power in the country, with their prime minister, a majority in parliament, and their allies in the presidential palace?

Some analysts think that the liberals’ current dominance could be short-lived, predicting cohabitation after the next parliamentary elections.

For now, the question is whether we will see a repeat of the situation. Will two different political forces and two sides of polarisation continue to be represented in power? Or could Donald Tusk become the absolute master?

TVP narrator: The president does not tend to formulate policy, but they have the influence to sign bills into law or veto them — a decision that can only be overridden by a third majority. 

The issue of presidential power is important because the president can block laws.

As the TVP commentator just said, the president in Poland holds mainly a ceremonial role, but he can block laws, although it is possible for parliament to overturn the presidential veto. Given the current balance of forces in the Polish parliament, this won’t be easy. Therefore, if a sovereignist president enters the presidential palace after these elections, it will be very difficult for the Donald Tusk government to continue with the reforms they promised voters. We can imagine that the liberals will really do what they intend to do.

The President of Poland is also the Head of the Armed Forces and has responsibilities relating to foreign policy.

Who usually attends EU summits on behalf of Poland? Is it the prime minister or the president?

Actually, they both want to go. When they’re from different parties, it’s always difficult. Let’s put it diplomatically.

TVP hosts: And in the meantime polls show a tight presidential race. We’re back in the studio. This is it! After months of presidential campaigns and many controversies, we’re finally on the cusp of finding out who’s going to be the next President of Poland.

It’s finally happening! The clock has struck nine, and we have the results of the Polish presidential election runoff exit poll. Aaron Damon is here with me now and will give us the first official prediction. So, Aaron, and then there was one! 

Yes, that’s right. We can now reveal the first exit poll results for the final Polish presidential runoff race. According to these estimations, Rafał Trzaskowski received 50.3% of the vote, while Karol Nawrocki received 49%.7 percent. It’s too close to call; we cannot make a projection tonight. The race is between centrist Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and right-wing historian Karol Nawrocki. That means it’s a waiting game: will it be Trzaskowski, who has led most major polls during the campaign and is backed by the government, who is pro-EU and pro-NATO? Or can Nawrocki, who has imitated Donald Trump by rallying against the old world order, come out on top? We can also share the turnout figures: according to Ipsos, 72 percent of eligible voters voted today, which is a record for a Polish presidential election. That’s also more than 21 million people, or roughly 75 percent of Poland’s 29 million eligible voters, both at home and abroad.

Remember, Claudia, these are our projections, not the final numbers. Watch this space as the night unfolds.

Thank you so much, Aaron. This is definitely going to be a very interesting night, and an interesting day will follow, as we’ve just learned that the result is too close to call.

Now, it’s time for us to move to our correspondent, Kazimierz Wysiak, at the Civic Coalition’s HQ. Sonia Agata Biszczan with the Law and Justice Party. Good evening to you both. Kazimierz, let’s start with you. What is the mood like, and were people surprised by the result we’ve seen so far?

Okay, I guess that was a good start to the evening. We have some projections, hypotheses and exit polls, and as far as I can see, there is a very small margin between the two candidates. How many votes is that?

Well, I would say we still don’t know anything. The difference is so small that anything could still happen during the night. The votes will be counted, and I think we’ll be sitting here for a while watching how it progresses, because the difference between the candidates is really minimal. I can’t immediately tell you how many votes it corresponds to, but it’s an even smaller difference than any of the polls before the vote expected.

As in all the polls before the vote, it was expected that Trzaskowski would come first, one or two percentage points ahead of Duda. Now, we see a tiny difference, but Trzaskowski is being lauded. Could the mobilisation in Warsaw, which had a very high turnout, have been replicated in another big city? Is it likely that Trzaskowski’s supporters voted in greater numbers than in the previous round?

Indeed, there was higher mobilisation than in the previous round, not only in Warsaw, but also in other big cities in western Poland, such as Poznań and Szczecin, which are known for their support of Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform. Trzaskowski is the favourite candidate, so yes, I think a similar mechanism to that which happened in Romania took place in Poland.

Vladimir, you are very familiar with the situation in Romania, so you will remember how the liberal, urban, educated voters of Nicușor Dan mobilised to support their candidate in the second round, and they actually allowed him to secure a victory. I think a similar story happened in Poland: there was a mobilisation of educated people from the bigger cities, and people from the western part of Poland.

Trzaskowski has just started speaking, so we’ll see what he says.

Rafał Trzaskowski: “I know how much it cost you. I would like to thank my brother, my father-in-law, and my whole family. Without them, I wouldn’t have made it. Thank you very much.”

It looks like he’s declaring himself the winner.

Yes.

”I would also like to thank all my friends — without you, I wouldn’t be who I am. I would like to thank my whole team, who led it.”

So there you go. There are screens of happiness and victory. Here, the members of Rafał Trzaskowski’s party and his supporters are shouting. Here, we have won. This is a victory. They are definitely happy about the results, even though, let me remind you, this result could still change, as it is only an exit poll. I’ve spoken.

Do you think we can safely say some basic things about the difference between the two candidates, what they stood for, and what their respective victories would mean for Poland? 

Yes, I will tell you in a moment. Just one remark about an alternative exit poll presented by the OGB company, because the exit polls we have seen on screen come from Ipsos. one of the most renowned sociological companies in Poland. But in an alternative exit poll led by the OGB company, Rafał Trzaskowski also won, but with an even smaller margin. According to their estimates, the Civic Platform candidate received 50.17 percent, and Karol Nawrocki received 49.83 percent. So, we can see that this is a race where not even hundreds of thousands, but tens of thousands of votes decided the outcome. 

I wonder if these results are for Poland only or also for the diaspora. 

No, these results are for Poland only, so the diaspora could change the outcome. Our diaspora is divided, just like the others. For example, I expect more votes for Nawrocki from the American diaspora. Those in Western Europe will probably vote for Trzaskowski, but this is a tendency that we have seen in previous elections. So, again, we are divided at home and abroad. Polarisation is tough, and even though alternative options emerged in the first round, the difference was really small. Now, I see Nawrocki speaking to his followers.

Karol Nawrocki: ‘Ladies and gentlemen, yes, we will win tonight! We will save Poland. We will not allow Donald Tusk to establish a monopoly on authority. We will not allow evil forces to take control of the public finances and steal our dreams and aspirations. This monopoly must not be allowed to happen, so we must win tonight. We know it will happen. These are unusual elections; the only ones since 1989. That’s why I want to thank you all from the bottom of my heart. To all Polish citizens, I would like to say that we have achieved at least two things. Firstly, we did not let them break us. They took our money, used state institutions against us, and lied. But you were with me the whole time. We stood together for six months in this fierce battle for Poland. I am extremely grateful to all of you, whether you put up banners, made donations or met me at meetings across Poland. You are all wonderful, and we are a strong, proud nation who love freedom. It will never be taken away from us. You are the best evidence of that. Thank you for being with me.

Okay, these are standard phrases. If I may say so, I believe that is the case every time. Sovereignists always declare that they support Proud Poland, Proud Romania, Proud Bulgaria, and so on.

Before continuing. A listener on our YouTube channel has asked how long we can expect the count to take. Could you elaborate?

Yes, the national electoral commission promised to deliver the final results tomorrow morning, so before 12 o’clock tomorrow, we will know for sure who the next president of Poland is.

If I may add something Balkan here, everyone declares themselves a winner. This is standard for Bulgarian elections, too. Even the people or parties in third or fourth place emphasise that they have won. So it looks like a wild guess, but maybe it’s not good to be a loser in Poland. Everyone wants to be a winner, and everyone has to be a winner. Do I put it correctly in your view? 

Yes, in Poland, you always want to be on the winning side. You usually don’t admit that you have done something wrong or lost. But I hear that the Law and Justice candidates — well, theoretically a citizens’ candidate, but endorsed by Law and Justice — Everybody knows that, so I also see something more in this short speech by the sovereignist candidate. If it turns out that the sovereignist side actually lost these elections, I expect them to try to undermine the credibility and legitimacy of the vote, and of the president. There have been a lot of claims on this segment of the Polish-speaking internet suggesting that the Civic Platform actually organised voters who sympathise with Trzaskowski to go from one polling station and even Law and Justice suggested to their supporters who are members of local electoral commissions to verify people’s certificates allowing them to vote outside their permanent place of residence. They used an app prepared by a private company which supposedly allowed them to see if the certificate had been used previously at another polling station.

There were a couple of incidents where a commission member tried to verify the certificate using a privately prepared application, which has nothing to do with official electoral institutions. Law and Justice clearly tried to create an atmosphere that the elections might be stolen from them and that they might not be organised properly. Now the question is, what will they do if the exit poll results turn out to be the final results?

Okay, but I guess there are also independent international observers, and maybe official organisations that professionally deal with observing the electoral process. Do we have any information about what they say?

There were no reports during the day about any serious incidents. In fact, this election day was very calm, even compared to other election days. There was a very minimal number of incidents, such as breaking the electoral silence, illegal agitation, and strange incidents in polling stations. It turned out that most voters were really interested in these elections. People were motivated to vote this time, and those who came to vote behaved appropriately. I don’t see any reason to believe that these elections were forged.

If I may return to my very big question, it would be useful to hear some comments on what generally happens, what the contentious issues are, and what will happen on these issues if Trzaskowski or Navrotsky wins. 

Very big questions indeed, but let’s try to identify the most important points first. If Trzaskowski becomes president, Donald Tusk and his government will be free to implement reforms. They announced them and they have all the tools to do what they plan to do. If they want to make more legislative changes in favour of business, the way is open. 

For example, last month Andrzej Duda vetoed a law that changed the system for calculating healthcare fees for businesses, and this was one of the most important pro-business changes announced in the parliamentary electoral campaign by Donald Tusk, but Andrey Duda actually vetoed them. So, we can expect changes supporting small and big businesses to return if the presidential palace no longer vetoes them. 

Also, if Rafał Trzaskowski is elected president, he will guarantee a pro-European course of the country, as well as in foreign policy. There is no doubt about that. When it comes to the leaders of the Law and Justice party, who endorsed him in these elections, they spoke quite openly about his return for another term as a pro-A Law and Justice president would be the first step to restoring sovereignty and grip over Poland. This would be the first step for them to return to power, and if they return to power, they have announced that they will close the system that they started to build during their two terms in power when they had the parliamentary majority. 

So yes, it was expected. A pro-business president. The same accusation is directed at Nicușor Dan, the winner of the Romanian presidential elections, who is also the mayor of Bucharest, like Trzaskowski is the mayor of Warsaw. I hope Gabriel Done will join us shortly to discuss a number of these issues and the common confluences between Poland and Romania. 

Ok, just one thing: perhaps I focused a little too much on the pro-business things. It’s also because, over the last few weeks, we’ve discussed the healthcare fee for small businesses, which became the number one question at one point. Lowering taxes also became a very important issue in this presidential campaign. Right-wing candidates are doing very well in the first round, and they are all trying to get declarations from Trzaskowski that he will cut taxes further, even though taxes in Poland are not that high compared to Western European countries.

Perhaps I should also mention that Rafał Trzaskowski’s election to the presidential palace means that Donald Tusk will no longer have an excuse for the lack of progress on women’s rights, LGBT rights, and other progressive issues that he claimed to champion when leading the Civic Platform during the campaign. Parliamentary elections. When women asked him where our reproductive rights were, Tusk responded that parliament was not voting on abortion laws because they would be vetoed by Andrzej Duda anyway. With Rafał Trzaskowski in the presidential palace, this excuse is no longer valid, and we should ask Donald Tusk where our rights are, and where the liberalising laws he promised us, the female citizens of Poland, are.

So, in cultural terms, the progressive vote is obviously for Trzaskowski, but could we say that he has a pro-social agenda, bearing in mind that Law and Justice introduced some pro-social policies previously? Is Nawrocki following this pro-social orientation of Law and Justice now? 

That’s a very good question, and thanks for asking it. Indeed, Law and Justice had a pro-social agenda of unprecedented scale, and many people in Poland are still grateful not only for the child benefits, but also for the higher minimum wage, the new insurance rules and the special types of labour contracts. Those were very important changes, but Karol Nawrocki did not try to continue in this vein. He tried to do a favour for the new far-right tendency incarnated by people like Sławomir Mentzen or the Confederation (Konfederacja) party, who are moving in a different direction to the right.wing policies, advocating a free market without barriers, low taxes, and maximum personal initiative. In short, there was no talk of new or additional social benefits in Nawrocki’s programme. Rather, there was talk of lowering taxes and introducing a ban on More taxes were imposed on Polish families, and some taxes were banned and enshrined in the Polish constitution. So, no, he didn’t try to be the social candidate this time; he wanted to win the votes of the new far-right.

What is also important is that Nawrocki criticised one of Law and Justice’s most important projects: the so-called Polish Order, which was a massive tax reform introduced by Mateusz Morawiecki, the Prime Minister under Law and Justice rule. In this campaign, Karol Nawrocki suggested that Polish Order, this reform, was actually a mistake and hit small and medium businesses, which basically means that they are no longer fighting for the votes of those who didn’t benefit much from the transition from the post-socialist era. I think they feel firm enough in these circles and thought they could fight for the business vote. Well, first, to some extent, they are right, as a map of the geographical division of the vote was shown on our screen at one point, and we could see that the poorer regions of the country, such as eastern Poland and parts of southern Poland, are still firmly on the nationalist side. Despite this turn towards the free market and pro-business thinking, the most favoured regions of Poland still stand with the sovereignists, and this will remain the case for some time. Even Volna Brodsky was not the most socially conscious candidate.

It’s interesting that we took a turn towards economic issues and discussed the economic reasons or motivations for voting.

I would like to open a parenthesis and include Gabriel Done, a Romanian foreign policy expert. I hope we will have a good discussion with him.

Hello, Gabriel, can you hear us? Good evening!

Gabriel Done: Yes, I can hear you.

We were just discussing how many common things there are between Romania and Poland right now, even surprisingly. We have the Mayor of Warsaw, who is the leading candidate in the exit polls after these elections, and the Mayor of Bucharest won the elections in Romania. Both of them seem to be supported by business, and their camps were supporting one another. And again, the division between cosmopolites and citizens of big cities, and the more and less educated, emerges. So, at first sight at least, there seem to be many commonalities. What can you tell us about these confluences between Romania and Poland in this historical moment? How do you explain the fact that the two countries seem to be so similar in their social and political orientation? What do you make of this similarity?

Gabriel Done: Thank you very much for your question. First of all, I think we should be very clear that the results of the elections in Poland are too close to call a president yet. However, I’d like to say that the possible election of Rafal Trzaskowski as president of Poland would significantly shift the politics of Central and Eastern Europe. We can agree on this because the result of the elections, if Traskowski wins, will have implications not only for Romania or Bulgaria, but also for the rest of Central and Eastern Europe. Our bilateral and multilateral relationships with other nations and the broader European project are too important. As a European figure, Traskowski’s victory would reinforce the liberal democratic values that underpin the European Union, offering a counterbalance to the rising tide of nationalism in the region, as Nicușor Dan represents for Romania and the entire region. Romania and Traskowski’s presidency have a very important bilateral relationship, as both countries share a common interest in regional security and economic development as members of the European Union and NATO. European stance is aligned with Romanian foreign policy and the vision of the Romanian president regarding European integration objectives, potentially facilitating deeper cooperation in areas such as defence, energy, and infrastructure.

During the first term of the Donald Trump administration, it was made clear that he said very clearly that he wanted to build a powerful defence wall between Helsinki and Thessaloniki in Greece. With Traskowski, I think Romania, Poland and Bulgaria will become the first line in the American dream for European defence.

I’d like to underline the personal report: President ‌Nicușor Dan and president-elect Traskowski, could further solidify the partnership between Romania and Poland, as well as the partnership between our nations in the region. Dan’s support for Traskowski during the campaign underscores a shared vision for a more integrated and resilient Europe and region, and their collaboration could lead to joint initiatives aimed at promoting democratic governance, combating corruption, and fostering economic growth within the EU framework. 

I totally agree with your guest about how Poland could change the region. European forces will win tonight, but Traszkowski’s victory would also be a significant moment for the European Union. It would signal a commitment to European Union principles by one of its largest member states, potentially influencing the political trajectory of neighbouring countries.

Because we know that there is huge tension between Poland and Ukraine. Now, and also because of a Law and Justice Party campaign against the Ukrainian minority, this shift could counterbalance the sceptical sentiment and reinforce EU cohesion, particularly in the face of external challenges such as Russian aggression and internal debates over the rule of law. I want to mention that in Poland, we can’t talk about a pro-European or pro-Russian president, because, as in Romania, both candidates claim to oppose Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian policy towards the continent.

In the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, a pro-EU Polish presidency and a pro-EU Polish president would likely result in continued and possibly enhanced support for Ukraine, as President Nicușor Dan said in the name of the Romanian state. Therefore, Trzaskowski’s administration could advocate for sustained military and humanitarian aid, as well as support Ukraine’s aspirations, not only for EU and NATO membership, but also for Moldova’s membership. This is very important because Romania and Poland are the most powerful supporters of Moldova’s EU aspirations. This aligns with the Romanian position of fostering a united front in Eastern Europe against external threats. Unfortunately, I can’t see this front or this position in Bulgaria because there are a lot of problems. With political instability at home, Trzaskowski’s presidency could lead to significant reforms in Poland, particularly concerning judicial independence and media freedom. In Romania, President Dan has launched a debate that not only aligns Poland more closely with European standards, but also serves as a model for democratic resilience in our region, so such developments could inspire similar reforms in neighbouring countries, including Romania and Moldova, and the Western Balkans.

Now, with your permission, I’d like to talk briefly about what a victory for Karol Nawrocki in this election would mean. Contrary to what some people might think, he is not a far-right figure like George Simion in Romania. Navrocki’s political stance is rooted in Polish Catholic conservatism rather than extremist nationalism, which I find very important because he is associated with the Make America Great Again movement, drawing ideological inspiration from the U.S. President Donald Trump. However, Navrocki has distinguished himself with vehement opposition to Russia, advocating a strong defence policy and expressing scepticism towards Ukraine’s NATO and EU membership until historical grievances such as the volume of the conflict are addressed. This is important because in Romania, we have this debate about how Navrocki can influence the pro-Russian politics in the European Union, so in my opinion, Navrocki is not pro-Russian politician like Simion is for Romania, Navrocki’s victory will not be very dangerous, as George Simion is for the domestic politics.

Thanks for this thorough analysis on Polish presidential elections’ significance and about what you said on Bulgaria. As somebody living in Bulgaria, I can say that there are many different forces coming from everywhere. I have this joke that everyone does everything to everyone all the time. But let me just say that I hope the accession to the eurozone will be successful, as this would also mean that we are moving forward. I noticed that Malgorzata agreed with you on a number of points, so perhaps she would like to add something or comment on your analysis.

Yes. Indeed, Karol Nawrocki is not a pro-Russian politician, you cannot win or come second in the Polish presidential elections on a pro-Russian platform. It is absolutely impossible. There is a consensus among Polish top allies that we are allied with the United States, and this transatlantic partnership guarantees the security of not only us, but also the rest of the region. So, in fact, there is a big interest in this regional partnership among Polish allies. In fact, whoever comes to the presidential palace after the elections will consider more strategic cooperation with other countries on the eastern flank. 

Trzaskowski has a clear vision of Ukrainian-Polish relations, further support for Ukraine, and how we should organise security agreements in our region based on the United States and Poland’s solid position in the European Union. This is perhaps one of the key differences between the candidates: for Trzaskowski, Poland’s place is undoubtedly in the European community, with Poland having a strong voice as one of the largest and most populous countries in the community. Perhaps we can expect a return to the old dream of Poland being the unofficial leader of the post-In socialist countries or Central and Southeastern European countries in Europe, we could expect Poland to look for allies among those currently ruled by or likely to be ruled by sovereignist leaders.

This is another important point that Gabriel made: if Trzaskowski wins today, it means that we Polish citizens defended liberal democracy, no matter how much we hate each other. We are polarized, no matter how much we hate each other, because the two blocs are unable to talk to each other normally. This is a different issue that we can discuss later, but we are still functioning within the framework of liberal democracy. We go to the polls, we have very tight electoral campaigns, but the conflict is still resolved by democratic means, which is very important. This should set an example for other countries in the region. 

Gabriel Done: Yes, it’s important for everyone to understand that in Poland, both Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki have firmly stood by their commitment to Poland’s strategic alliance with the United States of America, and, regardless of their ideological differences, are leading the liberal part of Polish politics. Both candidates recognise the critical importance of strong transatlantic ties for Poland’s security and international standing. With Russian aggression on NATO’s eastern flank and growing geopolitical instability, continuing cooperation with the United States remains, in their vision, a cornerstone of Polish foreign policy. Traskowski has consistently emphasised Poland’s role as a reliable NATO partner and a democratic bulwark in Central Europe, and his pro-European agenda does not conflict with his deep appreciation for the US-Polish alliance and relations. Whether he frames transatlanticism as a dual commitment to Western democratic values and mutual defence, I think his campaign has reassured both domestic and international audiences that under his leadership Poland would remain a firm supporter of NATO cohesion and transatlantic unity.

On the other hand, how close is Nawrocki ideologically to the American conservative movement and President Trump? He has equally underscored the need for a strong US-Polish partnership, particularly with regard to military and energy cooperation. This is vital for our region. While he is sceptical of some EU structures, Nawrocki’s foreign policy posture includes a robust and uncompromising stance against Russian influence, one that aligns closely with Washington’s priorities. In the region, therefore, both candidates offer a degree of continuity in Poland’s stance towards the United States, despite representing slightly different domestic agendas. Unfortunately, we don’t have the same situation in Romania because we have a more pro-European president than a pro-American one, so it is important for the Polish people and all Europeans to understand that whoever wins, the strong relationship between Poland and the United States will continue.

Okay, you spoke a little bit about the Polish-Romanian relationship, but could you expand on what you expect to happen in the Polish-Romanian relationship after the elections, given that there seems to be very close cooperation in areas such as defence and economic investment between the two countries, as well as ongoing cultural initiatives, especially after Morawiecki’s visit in 2023? So, what exactly would you like to see happen in the Polish-Romanian relationship?

For me, it’s clear that the results of the presidential elections tonight will not affect the strength of relations between Romania and Poland. These relations are important not only for Poland, but also for Romania. The president, Nicușor Dan, has declared his support for Trzaskowski’s leadership. European leadership of Poland, but at the same time, we have strong ties with Nawrocki and the parliamentary and political opposition in Romania. So, for me, it’s clear that our relationship will continue to be strong and we will continue to cooperate in the region in areas such as defence and energy. And, of course, European integration, especially when it comes to Moldova, the Western Balkans and Ukraine. 

But I’d like to emphasise the importance of military cooperation between Romania and Poland, because we are at the forefront of European Union foreign policy. We are at the forefront of NATO’s new strategy and military doctrine, so I really think that in the upcoming years, we will continue to cooperate and develop our cooperation not only in terms of the military and energy sectors, but also in economic sectors and, why not, cultural sectors. I should tell you that I want to congratulate the diplomatic mission of Poland in Romania for their contribution to cultural cooperation between our countries.

Malgo, do you have any questions or anything to add to this discussion?

No, I don’t have anything else to add, especially given these results are still so uncertain that we can’t be sure who will become president tomorrow. Indeed, I agree with what our guest, Gabriel, has said. 

Gabriel Done: I have a question for you, if you allow me. How can Navrocki’s administration influence the foreign policy of the European Union right now in light of the new Black Sea strategy of the European Union. It’s not very clear to me. During the campaign, none of the candidates talked about cooperation in our region, which is very important to us. Regarding Turkey’s abuse of the Montreux Convention, we don’t have a foreign military presence in the Black Sea. So how can Navrocki influence the European Union’s foreign policy? 

That is a very good question, and it is related to another question: what are Navrocki’s real plans for Ukraine? During the campaign, he suggested a number of times that Ukraine’s membership of NATO and its future participation in the European Union is a question that must be discussed. So, it remains an open question whether he wants to continue the Law and Justice policy of maximum support for Ukraine and a maximum deterrence policy in the Black Sea region, or whether he has anything else in mind. In my opinion, his words on Ukraine were basically an attempt to win over the so-called pro-peace segments of the electorate, I mean pro-peace here in English, not PiS (Law and Justice) as a political party, and pro-peace is in fact pro-Russian-leaning voters who are tired of the war, who believe that Poland is basically losing money through international engagement, and that we are not winning anything through our unconditional support for Ukraine, as well as our engagement in favour of the Republic of Moldova and the Black Sea region. Nawrocki was rather trying to win over those voters than seriously suggesting that Poland’s eastern and south-eastern policy should be revisited should a sovereignist administration come into being.

If Karol Nawrocki was to go to the presidential palace with his people, I believe that he would would continue the line of Mateusz Morawiecki, the Law and Justice prime minister, and try to make Poland an important player in this region, with Poland allied with Romania and supporting Romanian initiatives for security at the Black Sea.

Thank you very much, Gabriel. Do you have anything to add? I fear we’ve taken too much of your time, and maybe you’d like to watch what’s going on in Poland on your own. 

For me, it’s OK. 

Thank you for being with us.

Thank you very much. 

It was a very important perspective, because one could feel that there is more, and there will be more, in Polish-Romanian relations, so we also need people to understand and reflect on these issues. We’ll stay in touch for sure – you and Cross-border talks, of course. 

Thank you very much.

In the meantime, I saw some interesting statistics on public TV, for example, that voter turnout was 75% for women and 70% for men, which is an impressive result for both groups. However, as you can see, women in Poland vote, and if we mean ‘vote’, it’s a pro-Trzaskowski’s vote indeed, but on the other hand, it shows how determined female citizens of Poland are to take part in the democratic process, even though many female voters feel disappointed by Tusk and his policies. The fact that we still don’t have a law liberalising access to abortion shows that Polish women still have the will to vote and stop the sovereignists. This is my impression after reviewing what happened after these very big anti-abortion protests, which took place during the Law and Justice era, were very big. One might have expected them to change the legislation. 

What happened after that? 

Well, it’s sad to say, but basically nothing happened after Tusk came to power in terms of abortion. The problem is that for Tusk and his government, the explanation was that they couldn’t do anything. The second part of the explanation was that there is Andrzej Duda in the presidential palace, and that the government includes a conservative party. We must not forget that Donald Tusk is the Prime Minister of Poland, but the government is not composed solely of Civic Platform members. It is a coalition government that also includes the New Left Social Democratic Party, the PSL (People’s Party or Peasants’ Party). It’s actually a coalition of the PSL party and the Third Road party, which is the party of Shimon Hovnia, the former Catholic journalist and now the president and speaker of parliament. So basically, to get a majority in parliament, Donald Tusk relies on the social democrats on one side and the moderate Catholic party on the other. As you can imagine, the moderate Catholic party does not want to change. They want to reverse the changes made by Law and Justice, allowing more situations in which abortion can be performed, but generally they don’t even want to touch that issue. Knowing that they are necessary to keep the majority, Donald Tusk is also prolonging the resolution of that problem. 

In my view, Donald Tusk believes that he will get the women’s vote anyway, because if women don’t vote for his party, then they don’t have a real choice. In the end, the alternative — the sovereignist alternative — for women is even worse. Karol Nawrocki doesn’t present himself as an enemy of women, but he’s still a figure we wouldn’t want as president. I’m speaking as an urban, educated female voter, and I think many of us feel the same. 

We may return to the figure of Nawrocki, but I think it’s a good opportunity to ask you more about Catholic fundamentalism, if I may, because I wonder whether it has always been like this. I mean, I remember being in Azerbaijan once and a journalist who was prominent in the socialist era said that Poland was the most liberal country in the Eastern Bloc in the 1970s and 1980s. I also remember there was this Catholic Pope, John Paul II, who was perhaps influential in line with a certain strategy for winning against socialism in the region and internationally, a strategy that may have been inspired by Brezezinski, etc. I don’t want to sound conspiratorial, but I think this is common knowledge. 

I was wondering: has it always been like this, with Catholic fundamentalism being so influential? In Poland, and what is going on inside this current in Polish politics, because I guess it doesn’t stay the same all the time, maybe undergoing some transformations? 

In fact, I’d say that these elections were the ones in which the voice of the Church was the least heard for a very long time. In my view, aligning too much with the Catholic Church was actually a kiss of death to Law and Justice and their previous government, because, to be frank, this anti-abortion law was a gift from Law and Justice to Catholics, the Catholic Church and the most fundamentalist sections of their own party. I think Law and Justice are aware that they lost the elections because of that. They started losing popularity after the mass protests, and hence they somehow inspired mass mobilisations of young women, who realised during the protest that being a fundamentalist, traditional Catholic is no longer totally mainstream in Poland, and that there are thousands of people who think differently. It is no longer shameful to publicly declare that one does not adhere to Catholic values anymore. So, in fact, in these elections, I haven’t heard any bold statements from the Church endorsing Karol Nawrocki, which is a real difference compared to the previous presidential campaign. In fact, over the last few months, the Catholic Church has published a couple of statements. Concerning the migrant question, another major issue in Polish politics today, these statements were very much in the spirit of Christianity, speaking about the necessity to welcome guests, support foreigners and the weak. However, these statements were largely ignored, even by those who consider themselves proclaimed Catholic politicians, or the defenders of Catholic Poland, who preferred to speak instead about security and the necessity to seal off the borders. 

So, agitation for Karol Nawrocki did happen in Catholic circles, on the level of parish churches. I know there were political sermons in many mediastarting with the most famous and biggest Catholic radio station, Radio Maryja, which is the largest Catholic radio station in Poland. This agitation was still on a lower level than before, and while Nawrocki emphasised that he is a Catholic and a traditional man with a traditional family, these were not the central points of the discussion in these elections. I also remind you that the Catholic Church has been governed, or rather presided over, by a progressive pope until recently, and as far as I know, his successor is also progressive in some ways. 

Now, I remember another thing about Poland which may be important: there is this claim that there are two significant institutions in Poland. One is the Catholic Church, and the other is the labour unions. I don’t know if you agree with this claim, but I have had the impression that labour unions in Poland do represent a certain force in society. So, if I may ask, how does this election or Poland’s situation look for the working classes in general? What are they worried about? What do they want to vote for, or what do they want to receive?

That is a very good question, and the answer will be ambiguous.

If we speak about labour unions as such, most of them more or less endorse the line of the New Left Party, the Social Democratic Party.

So basically, labour unions in Poland are divided, like all Poles are.

If we look at the position of the two biggest trade union organisations, the confederations, we see that, on the one hand, the All-Poland Trade Union Confederation more or less endorses the line of the New Left, and, on the other hand, we have the Solidarity Confederation, which is aligned with the Law and Justice Party. Some of the trade unions advocate for further Cooperation with progressive liberals, while on the other hand, Law and Justice is still the only party that governs any kind of social policy, even though, as we mentioned before, social policy seems to have been abandoned by Law and Justice right now, who are trying to adopt a more libertarian, Trump-style programme. In terms of the economy, if you ask further questions, such as how the labour world reacted or voted, the first round results perhaps tell us more about the sentiments of the working class. Here, we see that many working class votes go to the right-wing candidates, the sovereignists, and even the far-right candidates. So, when we look at the class division of the vote in the first round, we see that, for workers, the most popular options tend to be Karol Nawrocki, Grzegorz Braun (the far-right candidate), and Rafał Trzaskowski, who is popular with working people, but more so with those in the service sector and in bigger cities. It seems that, for Poland’s working class, the pro-social right, or formerly pro-social right, who seem to be their best candidates, as well as Grzegorz Braun, who pretends to be anti-systemic, and left-wing candidates had really small support among working-class people, and their supporters are rather students, people in the service sector, or educated urban voters. But let’s say this: this kind of circle. 

Yes, okay. There was this article by Wojciech Lobodzinski, Cross-Border Talks’ author, that the left as a whole did very well in the first round of these elections. Could you comment on the situation among the left-wing tendencies in Romania and Poland?

Yes, I agree with Wojciech, but I also disagree. On the one hand, if someone says that 10% is a good result, it means that their ambitions are really low. But on the other hand, if we compare these results to those of the left-wing parties in the past, it’s a significant improvement. Getting this percentage of votes is a sign that there are still people who want to vote for them. Even more importantly, it shows that there are people who disagree with these liberal media suggestions to vote for Trzaskowski immediately, without considering any smaller candidates who have no chance of advancing to the second round. Perhaps the biggest success for the left is that Adrian Zandberg, the candidate of the Together Party (not the New Left), The Together Party is part of the government coalition, and it turned out that Zandberg was the second most popular candidate among the youngest voters, i.e. people between 18 and 29 years old. We can see that voters who have only just gained the right to vote are interested in The left. They are interested in alternatives, and for them, the alternative to the duopoly between Law and Justice and Civic Platform is not only on the right, but also on the left.

It is also interesting that the left’s good result happened in a situation where there were three different left-wing parties.wing candidates in this vote, and we tended to believe that there would be an electoral slogan of one of the former left-wing presidential candidates: ‘Yes, you can’. Can you make a pause to hear what’s going on with Nicușor Dan on TVP?

TVP: … The former mayor is facing a number of significant challenges, including the problems that were hidden during the last election year in 2024. These problems, which are of an economic, social and political nature, are now reappearing on the Romanian scene. Inflation is one of the highest, if not the highest, in the European Union, which has led to a decline in purchasing power in Romania. As the flood victims begin the clean-up operation, they will be looking to Romania’s new leader for help in protecting them in the future. John Todd reporting for TVP World in Hungary.

Okay, indeed, there have been floods in Romania – in Făgăraș, in the Carpathians. This is where Nicușor Dan comes from, and he also visited a Hungarian-populated area in the Carpathian region. It looks like Romania gets good coverage in the Polish media. Do you agree?

Yes, there is huge interest in Romania, perhaps not as much as in Western countries, but there has been interest since we started doing cross-border talks, I’ve noticed that interest in Romania has only grown. These cultural initiatives you mentioned earlier are doing a great job. 

For example, more Romanian books are available in translation in Polish libraries, and there’s an annual Romanian cinema festival in Warsaw. So, yes, there are signs that our countries are learning about each other, and with Nikos Ordan becoming president of Romania, I expect more of that. If Trzaskowski becomes president, there’ll be closer partnerships between Poland and Romania. A logical outcome, yes, and returning to the question of the Polish left and what can be expected from them, I think that whoever wins the presidential elections now, it is an interesting situation for the left. It is a moment when, I would say, they proved that it is sometimes okay to have multiple candidates to appeal to different segments of voters, with two of them gaining real visibility. Now, they need to prove that they are a real alternative to the new right wing. I don’t want to call it a duopoly anymore, because there is the far-right confederation emerging as an independent force. So, the left’s task now is to show that they are aware of more than just having a nice campaign on social media. I am very curious to see if they can do it. 

Could you also comment on how the campaign unfolded with regard to the extreme right? There were a number of candidates, and I understand that the new tendency in the extreme right is pro-business, while the older Law and Justice was somehow pro-social, so how are these dynamics changing within the extreme right?

We have had an extreme right-wing current since the beginning of the transition from a socialist economy to a free market in Poland, but it has become more extreme. From the beginning of the transition, there has been a strong current in public life advocating for a minimum state, minimum taxes, privatising healthcare and schools, and giving all possible advantages to businesses. The business and free market would build prosperity for everyone, and those who couldn’t prosper were simply not worth it. This idea was usually added at the end, and so this current has always been here. 

However, the mainstream parties tried to downplay it, also so as not to compete for voters for whom the transition was not a happy time. We have millions of people who did not benefit from the transition, and now we have seen that Law and Justice is also turning to this pro-market, pro-business thinking. I wonder if this pro-social turn was just a temporary disturbance, as you, Vladimir, like to say, or perhaps it was just a political project of one or two men, such as Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who could have authored this electoral strategy and now, having lost power, needs to adhere to a more pro-business current, which has always had supporters in Law and Justice. 

But, coming back to the main question, the Confederation Party, with its leader Slavomir Mentzen, is indeed a party that does not pretend to be a social or national party, but rather stands for conservative values in human relations and is absolutely pro-.business approach to the economy. If I were to compare them to any world-known politicians, the closest analogue would perhaps be Javier Milei from Argentina, with his policies of minimising administration, cutting public spending, and letting businesses do whatever they want. However, what is interesting is that Confederation is very conservative when it comes to everyday life.

Slavomir Mentzen, speaking during the presidential campaign: He said that he would like to ban abortion in virtually every case, including situations where a woman has been raped. Currently, under strict Polish law, women can still perform abortions, but he overtly said that, in his view, women should give birth in any circumstances.

The second issue he raised was that he wanted paid education, which is unlikely to be popular among young Polish voters. What is interesting is that this hardcore traditionalism — I hesitate to call it Catholicism — is also seen not only in Slavomir Mentzen’s programme, but also in Grzegorz Braun’s. He is perhaps the most absurd candidate to have tried in the first round, and he actually came fourth, if I remember correctly. Sorry, I’m excited and may not remember the statistics properly. Anyway, he got a good result, winning over a million votes despite starting all his public speeches with ‘God bless you’ and saying that his programme is to fight communism, fight the Jews, and build a Poland clean of immigrants. So, this kind of programme also got a portion of support, and this kind of far-right politics is very popular on social media in Poland. 

Of course, it’s an open question how many young voters these people have, because Slavomir Mentzen was the first candidate for the youngest voters, and Andrzej Zandberg of the left was second. However, Mentzen came first, so is this a durable tendency, or will young people abandon their initial sympathies as they grow older and gain experience? In any case, the far right has emerged as a force to be reckoned with in projecting any future parliamentary majority, because whoever wins these elections, we will have a Parliamentary elections in not that long a time, and it may turn out that both Civic Platform and Law and Justice will try to win the Confederation as their junior partner.

I need to remind our listeners that Poland is in fact the president of the Council of the European Union at this moment. I remember they had one word to describe the Polish government’s agenda, strategy or values: security. So I was wondering how that was going. What is the agenda of the Council of the EU presidency? What progress has been made in terms of security? What have you heard about the Polish presidency? Because in Bulgaria, I feel that there is hardly any discussion about it. It’s as if nothing is happening. So, what is actually happening? 

You’ll probably need to ask somebody closer to Donald Tusk and his government. You could also ask them about specific initiatives, because public opinion in Poland is also not really aware of any breakthroughs achieved by the Polish presidency. 

In public debate, security issues are connected with two issues: the war in Ukraine and migration. However, as you know, there were no breakthroughs achieved in this area either, as Poland is participating in the decision-making. No major initiatives came from our side, and I’d like to comment on something else. 

Just a few seconds ago, a map showing the voting deviation was displayed on the TVP channel, which confirms what I said earlier: the poorer regions seem to have benefited least from the transition period and to be more in favour of Nawrocki and the Sovereignists than Trzaskowski, whose superiority in the western and richer regions of Poland is really visible. So, if the map is shown again, take a look at what is going on in the south-eastern part of Poland, Podkarpackie Województwo. This is one of the poorest regions in the country, with 72% for Nawrocki. So, even though the sovereignists abandoned their pro-social agenda, they have managed to grow a very faithful cohort of voters who really believe that Law and Justice and their supporters are the saviours of traditional Poland. These people work for the benefit of Polish society, not the European Union.

On the opposite pole, north-western Poland (the Zachodniopomorskie region, with Szczecin as the capital city) voted 62% for Trzaskowski. This region has very close natural ties to Germany, with a lot of cross-border exchange in terms of business and labour, and a strong sense of belonging to the Western world, so it makes sense that they would vote for a candidate who stands for European values. 

Knowing the situation in Bulgaria, I wonder how important it is to have the mayor of a town or city on your side in these elections. I mean, can mayors in Poland influence the way people vote? Can they mobilise, encourage or influence the process indirectly or discreetly?

Well, I’ll give you one example. It was free to use public transportation in Warsaw today. You can draw your own conclusions. Was it an act of goodwill from the local government, or was it a move aimed at maximizing voter turnout? Indeed, local politics in Poland may look different from those in Bulgaria and Romania, but there are tools you can use at the local level. Don’t forget that mayors and local governments are responsible for things like landscape policy. If the local government favors a candidate, then his banners can appear everywhere in the city. It’s more difficult, but you see, there are tools to get things done. 

Under Tusk’s second term, Poland became part of the EU’s core. I was wondering how that is felt in Polish society and the media. Previously, Poland tried to be the leader of Central Europe, emphasizing the Three Seas Initiative. Once Tusk returned to power, Poland started seeing itself as part of the Weimar Triangle, consisting of France, Germany, and Poland. This is an important reorientation for Poland. Polish people are now at the heart of Europe, not just on the periphery. So, I was wondering how this change is being felt, and what to expect in the future. Will Poland remain at the heart of the EU? 

When discussing how the situation is perceived and how the media are covering it, it is important to distinguish between the European Union and Europe, as well as our role in the European Union. The sovereignist media and the media sympathetic to the government portray this in totally different terms. For the government and the pro-government media, there is a division in Poland, with most of the mainstream media being either pro-Tusk or pro-sovereignist. 

For the Tusk camp, it is logical that Poland is a Western country. We have always been a Western culture, even when we were a satellite country of the Soviet Union. So, for them, it is completely natural to see Poland as a partner of France and Germany—a country that shapes European policies, especially those concerning our region. There is a firm expectation that Donald Tusk and President Rafał Trzaskowski will keep us aligned with the European core and that our voice will be heard. We expect to co-shape European policy on virtually every topic.

On the other hand, the relationship of the sovereignist media with Europe is ambiguous. Nawrodzki’s campaign criticized the European Union, and he hinted that it is not a priority for him — Poland comes first, as in “Make Poland Great Again.”

For the sovereignists, the priority is Polish interests and the capability to defend them, even if it means conflicting with Brussels. Former Minister of Education Przemysław Czarnek remarked that if Karol Nawrocki were president and Poland were criticized for violating the rule of law, the European Union’s voice would be ignored. Thus, we observe two completely different approaches to the European Union and Poland’s role within it.

Ok, but there is still a government led by Donald Tusk. What exactly does being part of the EU nucleus mean? Elites, the people, the country, must somehow feel that Poland is at the same table with the big nations in Europe. Because this is the Romanian argument. From a Romanian point of view, it seemed as if Poland were at the same table as the big powers in the EU. What does being part of the EU nucleus change and how does it make Poland feel equal to Germany and France? 

There are three key issues. The most discussed are how Poland could influence the European Union’s migration policy and collective security policy—including the policy on the war in Ukraine—as well as the energy market and any future agreements that will replace or continue the Green Deal. These are key issues for the Donald Tusk government. They really want to have a say in Europe.

You asked me how it feels to be part of the European core.

Again, there is a division among the sovereignists. If you only read the sovereignist media, you would never learn that Poland is an equal partner to Germany or France. Instead, you will learn that the European Union has imposed a range of measures on Poland, including those in the Green Deal, and that Polish agriculture will be greatly affected. We may be forced to accept more illegal migrants, which would be disastrous. The European Union also didn’t allow us to continue with our current energy structure. The European Union is forcing us to abandon coal as an energy source. This makes our economy vulnerable. The sovereignist media won’t tell you that we are part of the core. Instead, you will learn that we are harmed by Brussels’s directives and that our government cooperates with Brussels in creating laws that ultimately harm all Polish citizens. 

As you can imagine, this is a completely different perspective than that of pro-EU voters. For these voters, the most important thing is that Poland is no longer punished for violations of the rule of law, criticized for moving toward authoritarianism, or denounced for them. They feel that we have arrived where we should have been all along and that we will have the chance to influence European policies on defense, migration, and energy.

I apologise for my candour, but I am slightly disappointed. I hope it is alright to be honest. Balkan moment of sincerity, if you wish. But I somehow expected that Polish elites, or rather the Polish people and media, would not be so national-centric. I have the feeling that the debates you describe are very national-ceentric, while I guess that, in Bulgaria, we are constantly told that if we insist too much on our national-centric or, if you wish, sovereignist view, we are always thinking about money and what we can take from the EU. 

The idea is that these are the values of the EU, and that being part of the democratic world means adhering to certain standards on various issues, such as the economy, the media and democracy. So, our pro-EU elites keep saying that the EU is not just about money, but also about believing in a certain project, a certain utopia or ideal, such as no war, cooperation between countries, etc. 

I don’t claim to be the norm in this sense; I just want to offer a Bulgarian or peripheral perspective on something which, surprisingly for me, is also somehow peripheral in the way Poland or the media talk about its membership. I would have thought that being part of the EU nucleus would make you much more ambitious, maybe even outside your own country, and make you able to discuss things with French and German people on an equal footing. I would have expected more stories about Polish firms, Polish citizens and Polish experts who are really European, just like von der Leyen or Macron. 

So, you’re not entirely wrong. We and our allies still need to think less about making Poland great again and more about how we can all enjoy prosperity and build something together that benefits not only Polish citizens but Ukrainians as well. In terms of defense and Ukrainian policy, Poland did a great job in previous years. Ironically, this occurred under a sovereignist government that emphasized defending Poland’s interests. Although they said we needed to defend Poland first, they actually did the opposite. They opened the doors wide for Ukrainian refugees, setting a standard for other European Union countries by allowing Ukrainians to work here, use the healthcare system, and fully integrate. This was one of the Law and Justice government’s brightest moments. They set an example for others. 

Unfortunately, under a theoretically more progressive, enlightened, and pro-European government, there is much talk about abandoning some of those solutions. Regarding regional and defense policy, our allies can have a dialogue with their German and French counterparts. I believe that our voice is especially important within the European Union on Ukrainian issues because we offer a different perspective — that of Central Europe — as well as our own experience with Russia’s tendency to subordinate neighboring countries and impose its vision of regional relations. I believe we are playing a positive role, and this role will continue even though the sovereignists present a different vision to the public. 

Regarding migration and economic issues in Europe, I could expect more creativity from our government. I find it incomprehensible how both sides of the debate so easily adopt the far-right narrative that immigrants are dangerous and that the European Union’s migration strategy should prioritize containing migration over integrating people. In fact, our experience with integration is not that negative. Of course, we don’t have as many people coming from outside as the Germans do — there’s no comparison — but people who come to Poland from other countries and start working and living here actually integrate quite well, even if they come from very remote places. I see Poland’s potential to be positive. I hope Poland shows its best side in the European Union. 

Thank you for your opinion. Our discussion is coming to an end. Currently, we don’t have a clear answer as to who will win. Some polls show Trzaskowski in the lead, but I believe our discussion of the social, international, economic, and political contexts has been helpful to some of our viewers who have watched us for the last hour and a half. I’d like to end with the question we’ve discussed for years: Is there a region of Central and Southeastern Europe with common experiences, institutions, and, in a way, common contradictions and issues? We saw how similar Romanian and Polish societies are in some respects. I’m not saying they’re the same, of course, but we saw some similarities.

I was wondering if we could end on this note, because you both mentioned that the Three Seas Initiative might be resurrected. What can we expect under one president or under the other with regard to the Three Seas Initiative?

In my view, if Rafał Trzaskowski becomes president of Poland, I don’t expect a breakthrough regarding the Three Seas Initiative. His priorities would be relations with the Weimar Triangle and creating a common defense policy with countries outside the region.

The idea that Poland could be the region’s unofficial leader would resurface, but if more countries elect nationalist leaders, Poland’s liberal allies would be even less willing to engage with them and build a united front. I’m not saying that Polish businesses won’t try to invest in these countries; there will certainly be initiatives. Many Polish businesses are interested in entering markets such as Romania and Bulgaria and being active in the region. However, these will evolve as private initiatives rather than official policies. Therefore, I don’t expect a resurrection of the Three Seas Initiative. There will be partnerships with the Baltic countries and Romania on defense issues and much less active partnerships with other countries in the region.

If Karol Nawrocki becomes president, I believe cooperation with other countries in the region will be ideological rather than regional, as it was under the previous Law and Justice rule. There were numerous attempts to build a network of parties that adhere to the same conservative values. There were even meetings of these parties’ representatives featuring Giorgia Meloni from Italy and the far-right Vox party from Spain. From the region, I don’t remember many partners coming to talk to the longstanding justice politicians. Romania and our party seem like natural candidates for that, though, so I don’t think it would be a big priority for Nawrocki. I expect him to try to build alliances with other conservative parties.

Thank you for this opportunity to discuss Polish politics, society, and elections. I don’t think this will be the last live stream; we’ll do it more regularly. We’ll also consider having good interlocutors. We won’t only discuss things amongst ourselves; we’ll also invite other people to join us. I would like to thank those who watched and supported us. I believe that Poland needs to be better understood. I am looking for ways to achieve this and will share what I learn. Now, I’ll give the last word to Malgorzata, who I think will end things well.

Thank you for the opportunity to discuss Poland. I think we’ll need to speak again in person. What can I say in the end? No one in Poland will sleep tonight—or at least, not many people will. Engaged citizens will stay up late to see the exit polls, which we expect in less than two hours, and to wait for the final vote count. I should also mention that at this moment, most people in Poland will not be satisfied.

Earlier, you asked me whether the exit poll votes included Poland and the diaspora. I can now tell you that we have results from the United States. As I predicted, this part of the diaspora voted for Nowrocki, who won with 56% of the vote among Polish citizens in the United States. It’s 56% for Nawrocki and 43% for Trzaskowski in the United States.

Returning to my final statement, whoever wins, half of Poland will feel disappointed and believe that this country is no longer theirs and that dark times have come. Perhaps the biggest issue, apart from all the economic and foreign policy issues we face as a society, is overcoming this polarization. It’s more than polarization; it’s enmity. In the first round, Nowrocki seems to have received more votes than Trzaskowski. They will feel disappointed and believe that the country is no longer theirs and that dark times have come. So perhaps the biggest issue, apart from the economic and foreign policy issues we face as a society, is overcoming this enmity. This is more than polarization; it is an enmity. In the first round, it seemed that there were more political options than just Law and Justice or Civic Platform because the other options were visible, particularly the far right, which has grown in influence. However, when faced with only these two choices, one half of society will vote for their candidate no matter what he says or how much he deviates from a liberal, progressive, pro-European program. The other half will also stand by their candidate no matter how many scandals surround him or how many times he behaves in a way that is dubious for a conservative Catholic candidate. I don’t think a good Catholic participates in this or in street fighting like a football hooligan.

Yes, I need to add something here because what you said was really important. I had the opportunity to speak at a side event during the Three Seas Initiative Summit in Bucharest in 2023. The event focused on the challenges to democracy in our region. I said that our region and the Three Seas Initiative should support cross-border media because it stays outside national contradictions and polarization. This could offer a different perspective and help us understand and overcome these contradictions. 

I see Polish society as one that reinforces polarization, and I also see polarization in Romania and Bulgaria, with pro- and anti-EU and pro- and anti-euro currency debates, respectively. It’s tempting to become part of this polarization. Of course, we all have opinions, and we all know we’re closer to some sides than others. However, these discussions and debates often devolve into insults and abuse. We need to be able to coexist with the other part of our society and be heard by them and hear them as well. It’s a big discussion. Perhaps we are still at the beginning of the depolarization process, but I have a hunch that there’s more to political life than just polarization. There is life beyond polarization in Bulgaria, Romania, and Poland. I’m curious to experience that life too.

In terms of politics, the first round showed that there are at least four options, not just two. Apart from progressive liberalism and social sovereignty, there is a social democratic option as well as a far-right option that stands on conservative and pro-market platforms. Thus, at least four political options with consistent programs have emerged, which is definitely a step forward. Compared to the previous parliamentary elections, when the choice was between two camps and anyone who didn’t align with one was insulted by the media, perhaps we’ve taken the first step toward overcoming polarization. Although the second round seems to repeat the old pattern, perhaps we are closer to the end of this standoff than we think. Either way, the next few years in Poland will be interesting. We will cover them on Cross-Border Talks, just as we will continue to look at what is happening in Romania and the other countries in the region.

Okay, that’s a good ending—somehow hopeful and optimistic. I hope our listeners enjoyed the last two hours of Cross-Border Talks. We’ll stay in touch! Keep reading Cross-Border Talks and let’s hope for a better future.

Let’s hope for a better future. Thank you, and thank you to everyone who joined us today.

Photo: (source: Cross-border Talks)

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